ARTICLES
What a Taiwan war would mean – missiles, chips & global damage
“The Asia-Pacific can no longer be classified as fully at peace.” from IISS' Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2026 That Asia is no longer fully at peace is the first sentence in the annual security report by the International Institute...
Retreat from Singapore: Richard Marles succeeds in getting all used subs from America. The new ones are rubbish.
Retreat from Singapore: Richard Marles succeeds in | RSS.com In history, a retreat from Singapore can have hairs all over it, but Richard Marles has turned that around, as the Grumpy Strategists unpack the events at Singapore's Shangri-La dialogue. There, Mr Marles...
At sea amid ships, cables & drones – policy announceables from Shangri-La
Maritime matters sailed through the heart of the Shangri-La dialogue, run by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, but the announceables were all at sea. Call it the horror-of-Hormuz effect: when normal ocean traffic is cut, normal life on land suffers....
Submarine plan U-turns: why public trust on AUKUS is falling
Black is white and up is down. There’s a reason Australians are losing trust in their government and in public officials, and it’s been on display in the unhappy land of submarines and our Defence department. In just a few weeks, we’ve had two major U-turns on what...
Hegseth’s Shangri-La: US allies – friends but freeloaders
Australia has just been touched by an old alliance habit—the kick from Washington for being a military freeloader. The free rider whack was one of only two references to Australia made by the US Secretary for War, Pete Hegseth, on stage at Singapore’s Shangri-La...
Defence Senate Estimates 2026: 13 questions for reluctant officials
Strategic Analysis Australia is publishing a baker’s dozen sets of questions on the Defence portfolio that we’d like to know the answers to. Hopefully senators have similar interests and will seek some answers from traditionally reluctant Defence officials. ...
A decade of Collins subs mismanagement results in promotions all round, but alarm bells for AUKUS
Speaking last week, Defence Minister Richard Marles called the Collins class submarines “Australia’s most important military platform”. So it’s more than disturbing to read the ANAO Audit report on the Defence leadership’s disastrous management of the Collins fleet’s...
Australia’s Collins subs life extension scandal: 10 years of failure covered up until the Auditors came – & the UK’s 1st Sea Lord takes truth serum
Australia's Collins subs life extension scandal: 1 | RSS.com Marcus and Michael go through the scandalous revelations about 10 years of failed planning on extending the operational life of the only submarines Australia has - the 6 Collins class - while AUKUS subs...
Defence Budget 2026-27: By the Numbers
This post has an embedded version of Marcus Hellyer's Defence budget Powerpoint slides. The slides tell a disturbing story about Australian military priorities, and the consequences of slowly building a small fleet of expensive warships and nuclear-powered submarines....
Oz Budgets: the Unhappy meet the Disappointed. Big Defence numbers get small. And the cage fight in Beijing.
Oz Budgets: the Unhappy meet the Disappointed. Big | RSS.com Michael and Marcus argue furiously over the merits and messages in the Albanese Govt budget versus Opposition leader Angus Taylor's response. Only one of them is right....Then Marcus burrows deep into...
Australia’s Defence budget 2026-27: The $14 billion disappearing act
The 2026-27 Defence Portfolio Budget Statements (PBS) are a very strange document. In fact, we’ve never seen anything quite like it. There are a couple of reasons for that. The first is the paradox that in an age of increasing defence budgets, funding actually goes...
No Asian Century – instead, a century of multiple of Asias
The Australia in the Asian Century white paper zoomed across the Canberra policy radar with the appointment of Meghan Quinn as secretary of the Defence Department. Quinn was head of the secretariat that produced the 312-page Asian century report. Seldom has a policy...
Australia’s 2026 National Defence Strategy – by the numbers you will know it
The Albanese Government has released its second National Defence Strategy (NDS) along with a supporting Defence Integrated Investment Program (IIP). This follows the 2024 version. That was the first in a new approach to defence strategic policy planning which was...
Zen and the Art of Defence investment: big numbers for everyone – Episode 70
Zen and the Art of Defence investment: big numbers | RSS.com A Zen temple helps Marcus seek balance between the contradictions in Australia's defence Strategy, while Michael struggles with a noisy kettle in the bunker. Australia's new Defence Secretary takes over the...
Bondi Royal Commission: Bell’s first test
Royal Commissioner Virginia Bell faces her first test on Thursday with the reception of her interim report on the horrific Bondi shootings. It’ll have been a rushed effort to get the core information needed to deliver this first report by the April 30 deadline. That’s...
Is United States submarine production speeding up? Not according to US Navy data
Unlike the Australian Department of Defence, the United States’ Department of Defense (or War, depending on where you stand in the whole culture wars thing) publishes real data that allows Congress and the public to assess the Department’s performance in spending the...
Behind the hoopla, the Government is leaving our military badly under-equipped in the drone era
We’re meant to be celebrating the Albanese Government’s amazing new plan to adapt the Australian military to the drone era, with Minister Pat Conroy telling us yesterday about an apparent $7 billion the government is investing in counter drone systems. But...
Deterrence Without Resilience: Australia’s strategic risk gets real
Australia’s strategic environment has deteriorated faster than its defence posture has adapted. The issue is no longer simply whether Australia is spending enough on defence, it is whether it is investing in the capabilities required to withstand the kind of conflict...
Australia’s brand new, but old, Defence plan: a strategy of denial – that the world has changed
The Grumpy Strategists cover Australia's new defen | RSS.com The Grumpy Strategists respond to Australia's defence minister, Richard Marles, discussing and releasing the 'new' 2026 Defence Strategy and investment plan. Marcus sees the spirit of Hiroo Onoda, second...
Australia’s National Defence Strategy: Canberra is yet to have its Carney moment
There’s something very familiar about the Albanese government’s new 2026 National Defence Strategy, launched yesterday by Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles. It continues the trajectory first set out in the previous Coalition government’s 2020...
The 2026 National Defence Strategy & investment plan: The world has changed – but Australia’s defence plans haven’t
Having read the 215 pages of the Australian Government's revised strategy and investment plan, two things stand out as particularly important. The first is the almost complete absence of engagement with the changed America that is now our major ally. There...
Trump’s FY27 budget: $1.5 trillion for the Pentagon, $33bn for the State Department. Peace through missiles?
Since my planned birdwatching trip to western New South Wales was cancelled due the current fuel crisis temporary supply uncertainties caused by unpatriotic Australians panic buying and I didn’t want to spend Easter solely doomscrolling conducting deep research into...
America’s wartime defense budget: $1.5 trillion to deliver a military able to fight everyone – except China…..
America's wartime defense budget: $1.5 trillion to | RSS.com Back in the SAA Bunker deep in the Brindabellas, Marcus & Michael declare energy independence (okay, thanks to government subsidies) and ponder the details of the Trump Administration's new Defense...
The Gulf collective defence exercise: a war no one admits to fighting
The Gulf collective defence exercise: a war no one | RSS.com Marcus calls into the Grumpy Strategists' Brindabella bunker with unwelcome news on more diesel supplies. After this disappointment, the Grumpies ponder the mystery of the Gulf War - a war without...
Tired of winning: US government shows how to lose an industry & hurt its friends
We’re told the Trump Administration is playing 16-dimensional chess in its reshaping of the world economy to make America great again. But the chess moves we’ve seen so far in the key auto manufacturing sector are damaging own goals that hurt America’s homegrown...
Our Kentucky Colonel masters deflection, the War & AUKUS sub outcomes – magical thinking meets US & UK partner realities
Our Kentucky Colonel masters deflection, the War & | RSS.com Well, despite the great news from Energy Minister Chris Bowen that Australia faces no energy crisis other than silly unwashed Australians panicking, the Iran War has already created a global energy crisis,...
AUKUS submarines: US and UK partners show the realities facing Australia’s small fleet
In 2056, 30 years from now, when Australia has eight nuclear powered submarines (SSNs), we will have two deployable submarines consistently available. That’s assuming all goes well with AUKUS’ “optimal pathway” and we do in fact have eight SSNs in service. Expecting a...
Sea lanes, straits & subs: How many nuclear subs to open Hormuz?
The war between the US, Israel and Iran is now entering its fourth week, and despite the loss of many senior figures, the Iranian regime survives. It is very difficult to bomb people into democracy. And so this war risks becoming a trial of strategic endurance....
The tragic death of the Major Projects Report: a crime with 3 culprits & 27 million victims
6 March 2026 is the day we can say that transparency around Australia’s Department of Defence died, or more accurately, was executed. It’s now sleeping with the fishes, mafioso style. On a Friday, the traditional day for burying controversial news, parliament’s...
A lonely America experiences its unipolar moment
Donald Trump’s greatest legacy is not going to be some kind of American economic renewal. It will be an America that is alone. His America First instincts have now reached a peak with his war against Iran. Aside from his Israeli partner, who has far more...