Beijing uses its military forces to send what diplomats call “signals” or, in plainer language, threats and warnings.

What messages does Xi Jinping want Australia to take from the imminent prospect of the Chinese navy firing missiles off our east coast? First, the Chinese military will fly and sail anywhere it damn well chooses.

Second, it will fire long-range weapons, gather intelligence and assert its presence whenever and wherever it wants.

Third, we will have no choice but to shut civilian aircraft routes near the danger zone. And, if we approach their flotilla, we run the risk of being greeted with hostile moves ranging from locking weapons radars onto our platforms, using military lasers to harass our personnel, aggressive manoeuvring and even ramming.

A fourth message is that Beijing doesn’t care about the diplomatic relationship with Canberra. There is no concept in Chinese thinking of a “stabilised” relationship: that notion is a work of fiction created by Penny Wong and mouthed by Anthony Albanese.

Labor’s “stabilised relationship” is designed to serve a domestic political purpose to claim that Labor manages China relations better than the Morrison government.

Stabilised relationship? What deluded nonsense! Xi wants to pass the message that he sees Australia as a third-order power. Xi wants submission from Australia, not stability.

China’s strategy of more aggressive military posturing around the Australian coast has developing for years. Intelligence-gathering warships are regular visitors to our Pitch Black air and Talisman Sabre amphibious military exercises.

Chinese military survey vessels have operated around our west coast submarine base, HMAS Stirling. The People’s Liberation Army Navy is building a vast database of seabed and hydrographic information about Australia’s surrounds. Why does it do this? To maximise its ability to sink our navy, close our ports, shut down air traffic and blockade the country.

One Chinese aim is to establish a “new normal” of a regular, large-scale military presence around our coast. And note that China has not the least interest in pretending there is some element of partnering or collaboration with Australia.

In years past, we worked to an utterly deluded plan that engaging with the Chinese military would somehow build a warmer bilateral relationship. The Australian navy has done simple exercises with People’s Liberation Army Navy counterparts off the east coast, including live-fire gunnery.

Chinese navy ships have docked at our navy’s Sydney base, on one occasion – in June 2019 – arriving literally unannounced (we knew they were coming but not when they would arrive). It was on the 30th anniversary of the massacre in and around Tiananmen Square in Beijing.

It is not coincidental that China is engaging in this heightened level of military posturing at precisely the time Donald Trump’s anti-Ukraine, anti-NATO and anti-ally inclinations are coming to the fore.

I doubt that Beijing cares at all about how Australia responds to its naval manoeuvring. Its assessment of Albanese’s jelly-back spinelessness is already factored in.

What China will be interested in is America’s reaction. Will Trump or a senior cabinet official like Pete Hegseth or Marco Rubio say anything? Are we able to encourage or shape an American response? Beijing will see that as an important indicator of American interest in Australian and Pacific security.

What should Australia do? First, and immediately, get some ships out into the PLA Navy exercise area. We have a “legal” right to operate in international waters too.

Why make it easy for the Chinese navy? Let’s at least show them that our navy can match it with them in skilful manoeuvres. Let’s raise the cost to Beijing, not give it a free ride to demean us.

Is there any Australian navy platform on the east coast in a position to put to sea right now for that purpose? I do not know the answer to that question.

Second, this is surely a moment for the government and the opposition to quickly say that we must lift defence spending. Currently the defence budget languishes just below 2 per cent of GDP.

Spending should have been lifted to the old Cold War levels of 3 per cent of GDP years ago. That must happen now and the focus of that spending should be on strengthening the defence force we have today.

I’m sorry to say that, with government disinterest, the intellectual fight has gone out of Defence and the ADF. We cannot defend the country while our military ties itself up with committees, health and safety, DEI, and shaping the perfect fantasy force for the 2040s.

Until an Australian government rebuilds Defence to look and be like an organisation focused on fighting for our national interests, China will treat us as supine fools.

In all the polling happening around the upcoming federal election, it seems that public concerns on defence hardly ever break into the top 10 issues worrying voters. Our politicians know that and act accordingly.

China’s military and political leadership understands our lack of defence preparedness better than our own population. That’s why they are readying to fire missiles off our east coast. The cat is telling the mouse that it’s going to eat it for lunch, but the mouse is insisting our relations with the feline predator are really quite stable.

Over many years of arguing for a stronger Australian defence capability I have come to realise that almost no one understands or accepts that need. We will be the cat’s lunch unless our political leaders wake up to the global danger now posturing not far from Sydney Harbour.

This article was first published in The Australian.