ARTICLES
We should learn from Israel that strategic shocks can happen here too
Israel’s intelligence services and military were clearly surprised by the Hamas attack but an equal mystery understanding what strategic goal Hamas was trying to achieve. Achieving surprise delivered Hamas a brief tactical advantage and a propaganda coup but the...
Breaking cyber’s endless loop
New ideas, structural reform are needed - not just more money. The 2023-2030 Australian Government cyber strategy looks likely to be announced soon. It’s unlikely to be backed by substantial new funding. Across the board, in the defence and national security...
Battlefield helicopters: the ghost of failed capability transitions yet to come?
The ghost of Christmas yet to come scared the bejesus out of old Ebenezer Scrooge in Charles Dicken’s A Christmas Carol with its vision of Scrooge’s miserable future. The Australian Army’s failed utility helicopter transition is scaring the bejesus out of me because...
The Israel-Hamas war, deterrence failures & hostage diplomacy Beijing style
The Israel-Hamas war, deterrence failures & hostage diplomacy Beijing style | RSS.com In this episode, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss the implications of Hamas' mass murders, and what Ukraine and Hamas mean for strategies of deterrence against other...
Hamas’ attack: failures of deterrence and imagination are lessons beyond Israel
Hamas’ murderous attack into Israel used a combination of high tech and low tech tools and weapons. The planners banked on Israeli security forces seeing the rocket and missile barrage launched by Hamas as the main attack – and also relied on Israelis assuming...
Hamas murderers’ plans won’t play out as they hope
Hamas terrorists entered Israel on Saturday with two goals: to kill as many Israelis as possible and to abduct large numbers to be used as hostages, human shields and victims of later atrocities. The death toll so far from this is over 900 Israelis and over 600...
Old trends & weak signals may herald shifts in warfare
We are in a febrile period of transition in terms of global politics, as well as the development and deployment of technologies, and ways of bringing effects to bear, whether in economics, warfare, or politics. Just when defence ministries were starting to refocus on...
Podcast: Army shape shifting, helicopter troubles & Mr Albanese goes to Washington & Beijing
Army shape shifting, helicopter troubles & Mr Albanese goes to Washington & Beijing | RSS.com In Episode 4 the Grumpy Strategists cover the restructuring of the Australian Army in the aftermath of the Defence Strategic Review, as well as setting out the lessons and...
Australian government consulting and best laid plans – 38 versus 19,000 doesn’t compute
That government has a consulting problem is old news. The focus so far has largely been on PwC; the other consultancies are mostly keeping their heads down, with an air of ‘there but for the grace of god’. Little attention has been paid as to how the public...
Solomons plus Beijing-Timor ties signals critical moment in our region’s security
There was a touch of Fidel Castro in Manasseh Sogavare’s speech at the UN last week. In a collarless Mao suit the Solomon Islands Prime Minister Sogavare delivered an ardent tirade against the “toxic mix of geopolitical power politics” afflicting the Pacific. Barring...
AUKUS is still a toddler with a long way to go
15 September 2021 seems a long time ago in AUKUS land. That’s when Scott Morrison (‘that fella down under’ as Joe Biden memorably called him) stood with Boris Johnson and Joe Biden to announce the birth of this new defence technology partnership that is all...
Triton drones: Defence is on autopilot, with Ministers along for the ride
The Department of Defence has convinced Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles and the PM-chaired National Security Committee of Cabinet to proceed with buying a fourth Triton long range UAV from America’s Northrop Grumman corporation, likely adding some $350 million to...
Sevastopol, $200 million Triton drones and Australian industry
Sevastopol, $200 million Triton drones and Australian industry | RSS.com Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge discuss what the Ukrainian military's attack on Sevasotopol says about navies & denial. This, along with lessons from Australia's 25 year journey of...
How to stop underestimating Australian industry’s capacity for our defence
Australian defence exports have been in the news, with reports that Australian equipment is having an impact in Ukraine’s struggle to evict Russian invaders. These include Thales Australia’s Bushmaster protected mobility vehicle, Droneshield’s counter-drone systems,...
Seabed mining rules lapse is window for Pacific regulations
In late July, after weeks of fierce debate at the International Seabed Authority (ISA) meeting in Jamaica, deep-sea mining proponents failed to get an agreement for the immediate licensing of deep-sea mining operations. The ISA has issued more than 30 exploration...
Podcast: Naval shipbuilding without ships & a Navy review about what?
Naval Shipbuilding without ships & a Navy review about what? | RSS.com The second Grumpy Strategists Production looks at 'continuous shipbuilding' and the Navy. 6 years on, the National Naval Shipbuilding Enterprise hasn't delivered any ships. Meanwhile, the ANZAC...
Australia & Triton: a user’s guide for what not to do with UAVs
One element of President Biden’s FY2024 defense budget that has not attracted much attention here in Australia is one that has direct implications for us - and some very practical lessons about how Defence does capability planning, acquisitions and thinks about the...
Australia can’t be a bystander as Washington’s submarine debate grows
Two years on from the AUKUS announcement in September 2021 and only 6 months from Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak and Anthony Albanese giving us the ‘optimal pathway’, risks are already emerging that need our attention – and require some immediate big shifts in Australian...
Defence & Australian industry: from low trust & distant to direct partnership for delivery
"Australia’s defence industry is looking for two things: the first is an opportunity to participate in the strategic level thinking needed to bring clarity to a situation of increasing policy disorder. The Government, Parliament and Defence need to create mechanisms...
Podcast: the Defence Strategic Review health check
Health check on Australia's Defence Strategic Review | RSS.com In this first Grumpy Strategist Productions podcast, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge do a health check on the Defence Strategic Review, with some disturbing news for the patient and for Australia's...
Talisman Sabre 2023: big lessons from a large exercise
The biggest version of Talisman Sabre ever conducted ended on 8 August. This high-end military exercise between Australian, US and other military forces involved over 34,500 military personnel from 13 nations and covered over 7,000km of Australia’s coastline...
Australia and Israel have a common blue economy future
Around the world, sustainable ocean economic activity, or the blue economy, is swelling. This growth is driven by dwindling land resources, technological advancements, and the urgent need to respond to climate change. The blue economy extends beyond traditional...
We need a national citizens’ militia
Successive Australian governments have had a phobia about being seen, even remotely, to support schemes that smack of national conscription. But we also know that in a time of crisis or conflict, our regular Defence Force will need to expand rapidly and work with...
Mobilisation and making things: how US industry won the war
Freedom’s Forge by Arthur Herman is unapologetic about how free enterprise, creativity and patriotic business figures turned a reluctant and consumer-focused American economy into ‘the arsenal of democracy’ that out innovated, out built and - with its allies...
The East Coast nuclear submarine base decision is needed now, not in 2033
US Republicans in Congress are pushing the Biden Administration to put more funding into US submarine production before Congress agrees to transfer any Virginia Class submarines to Australia. Resolved, this won't damage but will help the AUKUS deal. But it shows that...
Saltwater Strategists podcast “The China Challenge” and Australian security
A podcast covering strategy, capability, the region, China and the US recorded with Saltwater Strategists. Australia's security environment is not 'increasingly complex and uncertain'. It's unfortunately getting simple but in a nasty way - we face a direct security...
Robo debt and digital government: failure demands a broader redesign
In the preface to the Report of the Royal Commission into the Robo debt Scheme, Commissioner Holmes reflects how she was startled at the ‘myriad’ of ways the scheme failed the public interest. A fundamental failure was institutional—the Australian Public Service...
Australia and Germany help ourselves to jobs and vehicles while Ukraine fights a war
Ukraine’s military is running out of ammunition and other military supplies. The problem is so grave that US President Joe Biden has ‘concluded he had little choice but to provide’ Ukraine with cluster munitions – a class of weapons many countries, including...
Ukraine and China: déjà vu all over again for Mr Albanese at NATO
Anthony Albanese faces a testing trip to the NATO meeting in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, this week. And it shouldn’t be like this. Australia has been included in recent NATO meetings because it has provided much-needed military supplies to Ukraine and...
America walks the walk in battle for Pacific minds
NATO leaders gather in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, this week and Ukraine will dominate the summit. Anthony Albanese will be there. Security is global so it’s positive that he is attending. But we can’t escape our own region. Fortunately, there’s good news here. ...