The Albanese government is finding it hard to come to terms with the way the world works now and that’s particularly obvious in its approach to Washington under Trump.
But it’s also means the government is caught flatfooted when important things happen – like the weekend’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, for example.
The government’s stumbles and confusion are starting to have consequences for Australia’s security and for our alliance relationship with America. This is probably going to get worse as the gap between Canberra and Washington grows.
The growing policy differences are in areas that matter to Washington and that are getting harder to hide.
Australia has shifted away from America when it comes to our approach towards Israel, the Palestinians and the Middle East.
Mr Albanese left Australia’s reaction to the US strikes on Iran to an unnamed spokesperson over the weekend. It wasn’t until Monday that foreign minister Wong belatedly said Australia supported the strikes.
And not only has Australia shifted its UN vote for the first time in 20 years from support to Israel and the US, but minister Wong has gone further, saying Australia might recognise a Palestinian state before a peace process concludes.
The government’s default position of being critical of Israel because of the destruction in Gaza has left it flatfooted on efforts to stop the Iranian regime’s nuclear program. The result is fence sitting and confusion. It was Monday afternoon before we heard briefly from the prime minister, echoing Penny Wong’s words. That’s well after other world leaders reacted to the upending of Middle Eastern security.
Donald Trump has told us he doesn’t make a final decision until the last second. Mr Albanese seems only to know what to say and think well after the event.
Australia’s confusion seems to being noticed in Washington. It’s telling that President Trump contacted UK prime minister Keir Starmer, before the US strikes, but didn’t call America’s other AUKUS partner, Mr Albanese.
At the heart of things is the uncomfortable fact that the Albanese government’s instincts and policies are widely divergent from Trump’s America.
That played to the government’s advantage in our recent election. Voter anxiety about the early, chaotic days of Trump’s second term let Mr Albanese paint Peter Dutton as the ‘mini-Trump’ and ride a wave of anxiety back into office.
Great for domestic politics, but not great for alliance relations.
The larger problem, though, is the growing gap between Australia and America on China as a security threat and on defence investment.
The Albanese government has made a lot of domestic political mileage out of ‘stabilising’ the relationship with Beijing. Mr Albanese has already met Xi Jinping 3 times – in Bali, Beijing and Rio. In May he announced he would fly to Beijing to meet Xi for the fourth time.
Yet six months into Trump’s second term, he has yet to meet the US president and we hear he has nothing planned except perhaps at September’s UN General Assembly.
Beyond the personal level, the Albanese government looks at least as conflicted and confused on China policy as it does on the Middle East. At the National Press Club a couple of weeks ago, Mr Albanese couldn’t bring himself to put ‘China’ and ‘security’ into the same paragraph when asked was China a national security threat. Instead we got a word salad about complexity, relationships, the broader region and binaries.
He’s out of step with the majority of Australians who polling shows see an aggressive China as a security threat to Australia and the region. For Washington, China is the priority security challenge.
Mr Albanese has added to Australian weakness on security by dismissing American calls for us to invest enough in our own security. He’s made spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence into some kind of statement of sovereign strength, when he must know that won’t even pay for the conventional military he plans, let alone 8 nuclear submarines.
To American eyes and ears, this is a heady brew that undercuts Australia’s reliability as an ally.
It can only make hard headed folk in Washington wonder why on earth America should weaken its own Navy by handing over nuclear submarines from its own fleet to strengthen Australia when we seem determined to free ride on American taxpayers and American power.
And far from working closely with the US and its other regional partners and allies to deter China, we seem willing to discount the threat and double down on our trade dependency on Beijing.
After all, AUKUS exists to deter Chinese aggression. If Australia doesn’t share that purpose, then AUKUS no longer makes sense.
As we get further into Trump’s second term, Australia and America are drifting further apart. That might make many critics of the Trump administration happy, but the growing gap between Canberra and Washington undercuts our decades long reliance on America for our security. And it seems the Albanese government is yet to notice.
This article was first published by Sky News.