China is trying to change the Pacific Islands architecture by demanding the island nations amend what it says is an “erroneous” 33-year-old communique declaring Taiwan a Pacific Island Forum development partner, with participation rights in the Forum. The declaration was agreed to by Pacific leaders at the time. But now China is putting pressure on the islands by dictating to Forum members. 

This is all part of China’s political warfare intended to insert Chinese influence in the region. Chinese proxies are rife throughout the Pacific. It’s why our island neighbours are better off if they chose us as their primary security partner. In recent years we have concluded security agreements with Tuvalu, PNG, and Nauru. Last week it was Vanuatu with a ten-year deal, aimed at strengthening security and economic ties. Our aim is to prevent other states, read China, entering security partnerships with the islands without our approval. 

While our approach to the Pacific Islands has been miles ahead of China, it doesn’t mean that we will see the end of Beijing trying to further its interests in the region. In the case of Vanuatu, the details of the Nakamal Agreement haven’t been made public, with a formal signature next month. Vanuatu would prefer it be characterised as a broad development agreement, with security elements, to distinguish it from a stalled 2022 bilateral security agreement. 

03:

We don’t know if there are provisions about consulting Australia on security issues or rejecting China. In that context, it would help if Australia set a standard for transparency and very soon released the text, especially given Defence Minister Richard Marles said the agreement would “transform the relationship” between the two countries. Transparency would help build trust with local island publics and encourage governments to force the Chinese to do the same. 

Island political elites will continue to play off Chinese offers for economic and strategic benefits, and sometimes personal benefits. Chinese investment often appears as the best way a small island state can solve its economic woes, even if local elites become beholden to China’s influence. 

While our recent security agreements have been concluded with Melanesia, there’s growing interest in Micronesia, in the north Pacific. It’s an area few Australians know much about. Last month the governor of the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, Arnold Palacios, died. The CNMI leader courageously stood against Chinese coercion in these strategically located islands. 

CNMI has a population around 45,000. It’s the site of the bloody second world war battles of Saipan and Tinian. After the war, the people of CNMI eventually voted to join the US. Those living there are US citizens. For years, CNMI has been subjected to Chinese criminal and foreign influence and political warfare.

CNMI is just north of Guam, home to major US air force and navy bases. Guam’s location makes it the US strategic hub of the Pacific. The main island of CNMI is Saipan, only four hours to Taiwan. In the north Pacific, the US has been bolstering its defences and building infrastructure for more effective operations. This includes refurbishing World War II era airfields on Tinian (near Saipan) and Peleliu. It’s expanding the airfield on Yap in the Federated States of Micronesia. 

CNMI is an internal US matter. There’s no need for direct Australian involvement. While it’s understandable we focus on Melanesia we should be working more closely with the island states in Micronesia. It’s an area that’s been used as an invasion route to PNG and an attack route to Australia. It is an important strategic axis where the interests of China, Japan, Taiwan and the US, as well as several Southeast Asian countries, intersect. Micronesia’s strategic significance is rising.

Anthony Bergin is a senior fellow at Strategic Analysis Australia. This article first appeared in The Weekend Australian 23-24 August 2025.