The Australian Government’s planned recognition of Palestine outside negotiations with Israel seriously impedes Australia’s ability to engage with and influence the Jewish state, a state we helped found. It gives us the appearance of clueless dilettantes.
Hamas stepped back recently from ceasefire negotiations when they realised that continuing the war was causing Israel more diplomatic pain by states rushing to recognise Palestine.
Our extensive history of meaningful engagement in the region and our long-term support for a two-state solution requires that we should be on the front foot in offering effective support to move the peace process forward. But that must be done with eyes wide open with no blank cheques and proper oversight.
Israel is now forced to endure the hopeless, self-interested grandstanding of foreign politicians playing the moral card for their domestic audiences, while distant and safe from any of the dangers they themselves are fanning.
The decision to recognise Palestine simply provides a sugar rush for Palestinian supporters that will wear off fast. Already, Palestinian supporters are saying the Albanese government must go further and isolate and sanction Israel.
The decision is built on false foundations. Albanese hopes that diplomatic recognition will have practical effects on the ground and improve chances for the war to end with a two-state solution. He says we have new commitments from the Palestinian Authority on reforming governance, terminating “pay for slay” prisoner payments, instituting schooling reform, demilitarisation and holding elections. He says our position is predicated on these commitments we have received from the Palestinian Authority. This government is responding to “the vibe” within domestic constituencies. People want to see the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas just go away. However, this won’t change Israeli government thinking or decision making. Willing a Palestinian state into existence won’t make it any more a reality than it is now.
Albanese says the recognition decision will undermine extremism and further isolate Hamas. But Hamas has already welcomed unilateral moves to recognise statehood. No political entity will arise in Gaza that seeks a demilitarised Hamas and is committed to peaceful coexistence with Israel while Hamas remains active in Gaza with high levels of popular support. Any such new political movement will be opposed and destroyed by Hamas.
It’s hard to imagine the Australian government offering Australian Defence Force personnel to participate in a security presence in Gaza to clear out Hamas remnants. No one else is rushing forward for the role. Most Israelis understand that Hamas retains a high level of popular support in Gaza and the West Bank – the same Hamas that remains committed to the destruction of Israel through more acts like those of October 7, 2023.
Unlike its approach to the authoritarian rulers in Beijing – where Australia agrees “where we can and disagrees where we must, but engages always” – the Albanese government now has almost no connection to the Israeli government.
We hear from Mr Albanese that direct engagement between Australia and China at the highest levels is central to a constructive relationship. But when it comes to Israel, Australia is failing to engage in any way that might influence developments. The Netanyahu government retains its key backer, the US. As the war continues, Israel is almost certain to ignore other governments that are unwilling to risk much to change the situation on the ground.
The Albanese government should tell the Australian people some hard truths about the history and capacity of current Palestinian political entities and popular sentiment in Gaza towards Hamas. It should step and back sentiment with constructive action, such as working to create and participate in an international force to ensure law and order and demilitarisation in a transitional government. The PA could be included, if it reforms.
That would go some way to putting an end to the sublime performative gesture politics we’ve been experiencing since October 7, 2023. But from this government’s standpoint, that might just ruin “the vibe”.
Anthony Bergin is a senior fellow at Strategic Analysis Australia. A version of this article first appeared in The Australian.