The Strategic Analysis Australia team is delighted to be working on a joint project with the Institute of Public Affairs developing a blueprint for the Australian government on defence policy. Our aim is to identify actionable policy recommendations designed to strengthen the Australian defence Force’s capabilities in the next three-tear term of government. There will be six papers in the series. The first, released in August 2024, sets out the big strategic challenges which are transforming Australia’s defence and security needs. Whichever party is in power after the next federal election, we must quickly strengthen the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and build key international alliances to counter our worsening national security outlook.
We review key themes which have defined our national approach to defence since Federation. These include a strong instinct to define national security as part of a larger commitment to global and regional stability; a preference for powerful allies and an ability to work with trusted partners. We have always maintained small but relatively capable military forces but have tended to seek security on the cheap, falling back on our alliance with the US. Arguably Australia is strategically naïve. We can’t afford to let ourselves be surprised by the next major conflict.
Our paper traces how Australia’s defence policy thinking has developed over the last few decades, arriving at a point where China dominates today’s thinking. We assess that the risk of a conflict in the Asia-Pacific emerging in the second half of the 2020s is alarmingly increasing. As such it is concerning that successive governments have failed in efforts to rapidly strengthen our defence capabilities. In 2024 Defence has a puzzling planning focus on building the ADF for the later 2030s at the price of weakening the current force.
This series of publications of which this paper is the first, will look in more detail about what needs to be done to strengthen Australia’s defence. Here we present six recommendations designed to strengthen key relationships; build deterrence and strike capability and, crucially get preparations underway to build infrastructure and a greater Defence presence in Australia’s north.
RECOMMENDATION 1: The government should seek to acquire the B-21 Raider stealth bomber as an additional element to AUKUS, also offering to host a US B-21 contingent in Australia. This is to strengthen deterrence in the 2020s and manage the risk of delays in the AUKUS submarine.
RECOMMENDATION 2: Expand between 2025 and 2028 the US Marine Corps rotational presence in northern Australia to around 16,000 – a Marine Expeditionary Brigade – working with the Australian Army’s developing littoral warfare capability.
RECOMMENDATION 3: Bring Japan as close as possible into ANZUS cooperation and invite the Self-Defence Force to permanently join rotational deployments with the Australian and US military units in northern Australia.
RECOMMENDATION 4: Develop a stronger defence and intelligence relationship with India, recognising the country’s long-term strengths and trajectory.
RECOMMENDATION 5: Build a Pacific Response Force with the Pacific Island countries focused on humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and building PIC community resilience.
RECOMMENDATION 6: Establish permanent links, a stronger ADF presence and supporting infrastructure in the top end, the Cocos and Christmas Islands and Norfolk Island.
The full paper is available to download from the IPA site here.