America’s approach to the world has changed fundamentally. The era of its failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is over, along with the big idea behind them. That was then Secretary of State Colin Powell’s famous line “You break it, you own it”, based on the Pottery Barn slogan. It meant American responsibilities included nation building and reconstruction in the aftermath of conflict.
The new Trump doctrine looks almost as simple but far more blunt: “We break it, you still own it.”
The Powell doctrine drove America’s approach to Afghanistan and Iraq back in the early 2000s: short brutal military campaigns toppled the governments in Kabul and Baghdad. America and its coalition allies then flowed ground forces and civilian teams in to take over reconstruction and national building, and ended up fighting armed insurgencies against former regime groups and extremists.
These were the forever wars that bogged America and its partners down for decades. Iraq has slowly emerged as a troubled but functioning democracy, still dealing with Islamic State, Al Qaeda, and several Iranian-backed armed militias. In Afghanistan, an even more ruthless Taliban is back after Joe Biden withdrew American forces under a deal his predecessor, Donald Trump, negotiated.
Washington is still very interested in changing particular countries’ governments who it sees as threatening its interests, by force if it sees this as necessary. But it is no longer interested in exposing its military personnel in lengthy armed conflicts after initial strikes change the facts on the ground.
And it’s no longer interested in creating broad coalitions of its partners and allies, either to build legitimacy for military action or to share the burdens of reconstruction and “peacemaking’.
First with the abduction of Venezuelan president Maduro and now on a much larger scale with Iran, the new Washington approach is military shock and awe from above, followed by withdrawal.
So, with Venezuela, the Trump Administration conducted a very limited operation to snatch President Maduro and his wife, but left the broader regime in place led by his deputy, Delcy Rodriguez. That disappointed democracy campaigners inside Venezuela and the diaspora, including opposition leader Machado. But the result is a government that’s far more compliant to Washington’s and which is no longer a key partner for China or Russia in Latin America.
Now with Iran, American and Israeli strikes have gone much further than the abduction of Maduro. Around 50 of Iran’s top religious, civilian and military leadership were killed on the opening day of US and Israeli strikes, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the heads of the Iranian military and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The war is continuing, damaging and destroying Iran’s leadership, its key government and military sites and its missiles, drones and launch systems. This will put real limits on Iran’s ability to attack Israel, US forces in the Middle East and the territory and populations of Gulf States. The campaign needs to be successful fast because the stocks of defensive interceptors and counter drone systems will shrink rapidly and take time to replenish.
What it won’t do is disarm the over 800,000 armed people in Iran’s military, Revolutionary Guards and Police, or deal with the thousands more in Iran’s religious militia, the Basij. And it is these forces, equipped with batons, pistols and automatic weapons, who have put down repeated Iranian popular protests against the Shi’a regime since 1979.
Only a month ago, these forces killed thousands of protesters and imprisoned many thousands more, showing they would do whatever it takes to stay in power.
The goals Pres Trump has set out – ending Iran’s nuclear program, destroying its missile capabilities and its navy, and giving Iranian protesters the chance to overthrow their government – fit with his new doctrine. Because there’s not even an inkling that this last goal is a job for America.
It’s a high stakes gamble – for two reasons. The first is that regime change hasn’t happened through airstrikes before anywhere on the planet.
The second problem is that the masses of Iranian people who have protested aren’t the ones with the weapons.
Footage about what’s happening in Iran now is in short supply. What has come out has included two kinds of popular gathering: joyful groups cheering the death of Khamenei, and other groups mourning the death of their spiritual leader.
This shows the potential for violent civil conflict inside Iran once the dust clears. That looks more likely than the simple emergence of some kind of united, democratic country when the bombs stop.
A key thing to watch is whether powerful figures inside Iran’s security forces start to support the protest movement, now that Supreme Leader Khamenei and a large chunk of the top power structure is dead.
If this starts to happen or if remaining leaders simply want a way to end the war, a figure could emerge as Rodriguez did in Venezuela who Washington is happy to deal with, even if they are still running the same security forces and other systems of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As with Venezuela, that outcome might fall well short of what Iranians who fled the regime to other countries so obviously want. That would also be deeply disappointing to many Iranians who been living under Khamenei’s autocratic regime. Although it could still achieve America’s and Israel’s more limited goals: an Iran no longer pursuing nuclear weapons and no longer armed to the teeth in ways that threaten Israel and the security of the wider Middle East, whatever its domestic troubles.
The new Trump doctrine is a much narrower view of American interests in the wider world than we have seen for decades. It shows an America that is the opposite of isolationist – instead it’s deeply engaged in pursuing what it sees as its interests and is willing to act quickly and aggressively not just close to home, but also in distant parts of the world.
The rest of us are along for the ride.
This article was first published by Sky News.