In the beating heart of this nation’s capital, Canberra, many of us have been thinking and rethinking about the Australia-US alliance and the AUKUS sub deal that is now so central to it.  We’re reaching a crescendo as the long-awaited, much anticipated Albanese-Trump meeting looks set to happen.

But what if we’re getting the basics wrong?  I’ve gone down paths others have: analysing US submarine production troubles, reading the tea leaves about the Pentagon’s AUKUS review and its shift in defence focus to the homeland, not China. Add in Australia’s low level of defence spend and it’s a busy picture.

So, what if none of this matters much? What if in Donald Trump’s mind there’s an entirely different train of thought chugging along?  Looking at the track record of Trumpian decision-making, an alternative scenario seems both likely and rational.

It’s based on the book “He’s Just not That Into You“, about that guy who doesn’t call you back for a second date. This chunk from a review gives the idea:

“Relationships can be difficult, especially when you don’t know what the guy is thinking.

Guys are not that complicated, although they’d like you to believe they are. Basically, if a guy does not make an effort, he’s probably just not that into you.”

Applying this to the Albo-Trump meeting gives a strikingly different perspective, sketched out below.

President Trump has got a lot on right now and none of it is about Australia or nuclear submarines.

He’s just back from a lovely dinner with King Charles at Windsor Castle where he was treated beautifully, with almost no one bringing up the names Mandelson or Epstein.  He’s taking action against domestic enemies on the Left he blames for stoking division in America including the killing of Charlie Kirk, and he’s winning most of the cases in the Supreme Court that keep his big initiatives on track. 

Most days bring calls with Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu about the war in Gaza – all while getting ready for a deal-making summit with Xi Jinping once Tik Tok’s American operator is settled.  A dark spot is thinking about how his friendship with Vladimir Putin is feeling like a one way street (why is HE the one who has to make all the phone calls?)

And here’s the Australian prime minister in for a quick chat. Don’t remember him. The briefing note from Pete Hegseth over at the Pentagon has some boring but important stuff:

“Australia is a longstanding ally who has been with America in every war for over a century. Shared values and interests. Mateship between our militaries (in a good way). Not spending much on its military: 2% not 3.5% of GDP.  But buying a huge amount of US weapons over the next ten years: $US150 billion worth. 

Their leader – Prime Minister Albanese – is under pressure at home on three things: 1. not meeting you before now, 2. low defence spending and 3. the “AUKUS” submarine deal (Biden set this up. We are selling them used subs in the 2030s – if the US President decides that’s okay then). He’s giving us $US3 billion up front for the subs, no strings attached, and they’ll pay the bills for the actual subs when the 2030s come around.”

Marco Rubio has added a bit from the State Department:

“Mr President, just giving Mr Albanese a smile and a positive word about AUKUS (the sub deal) will be huge for him back home and make him grateful into the future. He’s with Macron on Israel-Gaza, but the $3 billion is all good.”

President Trump is a pragmatic, intuitive decision maker.  The stakes for him in the Albanese meeting are low and his level of knowledge around AUKUS challenges, Australian politics and defence capabilities is probably not deep (in February he didn’t know what AUKUS meant).  The real decision for him is about the ‘vibe’ of the meeting and what’s in it for his administration right now.  And that looks like plenty of Australian cash heading America’s way.

Anthony Albanese will be going all out to be positive and respectful, finding words to praise Mr Trump for his  great work and being very grateful for their 4 phone calls and now this meeting.  He’ll showcase recent announcements about billions of dollars of Aussie defence spending and talk up his plans to spend big on American weapons.  There might be a moment for a shared chuckle about pesky journalists.

The prime minister may not get a chance to offer Mr Trump access to Australia’s critical minerals before the handshake happens and the door opens for the next meeting. But as long as Mr Trump says the magic word “AUKUS” nowhere near any words like “re-negotiate”, “cancel” or “3.5% of GDP”, this will be a glittering success. Back in Canberra, we’ll interpret a smile as showing the first sub is already here in Australian colours.

The good news for Mr Albanese is that Mr Trump is a busy man – and when it comes to Australia that means he’s just not that into us. That’s likely to mean he won’t focus as much as we fear on his Aussie visitor and the challenges and differences we’re all so worried about.  In the world of 2025, for now, that amounts to good news.

This article was first published by the Lowy Interpreter.