After the disastrous Oval Office meeting with Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump is pausing all military aid to Ukraine.

This is apparently to force Mr Zelensky to do two things: apologise to President Trump for not being grateful enough for his support, and to bring him to the negotiating table for ‘good faith’ peace negotiations with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, orchestrated by Mr Trump.

And Ukraine’s leader might not actually be in the negotiation, just expected to accept what Mr Trump and Mr Putin agree earlier between themselves for his country’s future and for Europe’s security.

President Trump may still also want Mr Zelensky to sign a deal giving US companies access to Ukrainian mineral wealth as a type of unexpected multi-billion dollar bill for American support and equipment provided by his predecessor, Joe Biden.  That deal doesn’t contain anything on continuing US military supplies, or any kinds of security guarantee to back peace negotiations.  It’s only about past American help and future business for American companies.

President Biden sought no Ukrainian payment for this wartime assistance, which is similar to the approach taken by Ukraine’s international supporters in Europe and Australia with defence equipment we have provided to Ukraine’s military. So, it’s unexpected and very unusual for Mr Trump to be presenting a bill now.

President Trump no doubt hopes to quickly force Mr Zelensky to give him an apology for what he sees as showing disrespect in the Oval Office meeting and express thanks for his support.  That might happen.

The Kremlin has issued celebratory media statements in the aftermath of the Oval office meeting.  Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said that Moscow and Washington are now aligned on how to settle Russia’s war in Ukraine, with the US now agreeing with Putin’s position on both Ukraine and Europe.  That is a breathtaking set of ideas, pretty well supported by what’s happened.  So, it hasn’t taken much Kremlin spin to put together.

Halting US military supplies flowing into Ukraine will affect things on the battlefield.  Russia has intensified its attacks in recent weeks since the Trump inauguration and US items like the HIMARS rocket system, Abrams tanks, Bradley armoured fighting vehicles and Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system have been key systems relied on by Ukraine’s army in its fight against Russian forces. US intelligence and targeting data has helped Ukraine ward of Russian missile, drone and ground attacks. The morale boost to Russian forces and the damage to Ukrainian morale from the American supply halt is also real.

Ukraine’s European allies can and will step in with alternative military support, but Europe’s defence industry is still slow to get production of key supplies rolling. They and others, including Australia, can accelerate planned deliveries, but European cupboards – and Australia’s – are pretty bare.  

(On Australia’s efforts, Defence bureaucrats could get over how complex and difficult moving a tank is and speed up the delivery of the 49 Abrams tanks we promised Ukraine back in October last year.  Officials say it’ll be 9 to 12 months for the first of the 49 to be delivered, and Richard Marles has defended their efforts, claiming “operational” reasons for not giving a delivery timetable. But the UK Government managed to deliver 14 Challenger tanks to Ukraine in March 2023, just 2.5 months after announcing this in January that year.  So, speed is possible if Marles demands it given Ukraine’s needs.)

Ukraine’s own defence industry is impressive and growing, particularly in areas like armed drones, indigenously produced missiles and other electronic systems.  But there’s no simple replacement for US support.

The longer the US supply halt goes on, the bigger the battlefield effects. And the only one who benefits from this is Vladimir Putin.

Mr Trump stopped military supplies to Ukraine in his first term, before the war, as a way to pressure the Ukrainian government to bring corruption charges against Hunter Biden.  Pressure from the US Congress and European allies made him reverse that decision, without Mr Zelenksy starting any prosecutions.  But Mr Trump sounds in no mood to change his mind this time.

It’s a high stakes move from the American president that seems at least partly driven by personal anger at Mr Zelensky as well as being the type of brutal dealmaking that is his hallmark.  From Mr Trump’s statements, his approach is also based on his feeling he can trust Putin to keep his word, which might be why he’s called on Zelensky to show Putin respect. Given Putin’s history of deception, that trust is almost certainly misplaced.

But halting US military support to a nation that is in the middle of a destructive war for its survival risks more than just personal pride and prestige. 

The disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan under Biden and the fall of Saigon at the end of the Vietnam War are events that might be playing in the Trump administration’s and European’s minds as examples of how ending US support plays out.

Ukraine’s leaders and military will have prepared for scenarios like this if they have been paying attention as they certainly will have been to Mr Trump before and after his re-election.  So, they will be shocked but not entirely flatfooted.  And the Ukrainian military and people have proven themselves both courageous and innovative every day of this 3 year long war – from the moment Mr Zelensky declared “I don’t want a ride. I want ammunition”. So, they may not be forced to simply accede to Mr Trump’s demands, particularly as European leaders have moved quickly to commit to Ukraine’s support.

It looks like any peace conference to end the war is a way off.  And given these recent developments, any negotiations now would be starting from the demands Mr Putin has made – a demilitarised Ukraine with new leaders and no security guarantees from Europe or the US, with Russia pocketing the Ukrainian territory it has seized to date and probably the rest of regions like the Donbass. 

That starting point would reward the aggressor and send an encouraging message to others thinking about whether now is the right to time to use force against others – China’s Xi Jinping looking over the water at Taiwan being an obvious one.

The best case from here is that somehow the personal poison between Presidents Trump and Zelenksy lessens, or that despite their personal views, they both act in the interests of peace and security. All without handing Mr Putin a real world victory ­­– not just the propaganda one he’s achieving right now. 

A version of this article was first published on Sky News.