Israel’s military strikes against Iran are broader than nuclear facilities, air defence and missile sites. Israel has also successfully targeted and killed potentially seven senior generals of the Iranian military and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Moreover, it appeared the strikes were in waves, six at the time of writing. This is not a case of one big strike, then wait (literally) for the smoke to clear, assess the damage and strike again if necessary. Israel judges that it has one decisive opportunity to break Iran’s capacity to orchestrate violence against it. Benjamin Netanyahu is going for broke.
That means this conflict will last for some days. Iran is launching limited drone strikes in retaliation, but it remains to be seen if it has sufficient capability to launch a major co-ordinated strike against Israel.
Israel’s destruction of Iranian missiles and air defence capabilities last October, of Hezbollah and IRGC assets in Syria after Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December, and the current strikes have reduced Iran to the point that its response is ineffective.
It’s remarkable that, after so much speculation about military action, Iran’s military leadership was caught sleeping. I see nothing in current reporting suggesting that even a token air defence effort was mounted to complicate Israel’s operations.
Right now, however, we are deep in the fog of war. It’s impossible to judge with any precision how things will develop. So I offer instead six pointers to watch in coming days.
First, look for indications of repeated strikes against Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Nantaz and Tabriz. It’s often reported that bunker-busting bombs can’t dig deep enough to hit the most secure facilities. I’m not so sure. Israel will keep hitting them to make certain they can’t be brought back online.
Second, major Israeli offensive cyber operations will be under way, which probably explains why Iran is not offering a co-ordinated response from working command-and-control facilities. How long will it take Iran to overcome this and get organised?
Third, watch the US Navy operating near the eastern Mediterranean. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson is in the Arabian Sea along with the cruiser USS Princeton and a destroyer squadron. It’s not clear from public reporting what other US Navy assets are close enough to assist with anti-missile and drone defence against a likely Iranian strike, but something will be in place because this will be essential for Israel to defeat any large-scale retaliation.
Point four, the US has been quick to say it is not involved in the Israeli strike. That may be true as far as air operations are concerned but the US will be playing an important role in targeting, battle damage assessment, real-time intelligence, logistic support and air defence. That will become clearer in coming days.
Point five, I expect Arab countries to stay out of this fight. They will be willing Israel on to succeed by destroying an Iranian nuclear threat to the whole region. Hamas will worry about losing its principal backer, so it will do what it can from Gaza to cause damage and distraction.
Point six: Watch the streets in Tehran. We may see young Iranians once again organising to challenge the theocratic regime. It would be foolish to predict the demise of the regime, but it is looking fragile.
Tehran made a massive strategic mistake to not keep the Trump administration hoping for a peace settlement. Remember that in 2019 Donald Trump abandoned nuclear negotiations with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Trump never looked back once he realised that “Little Rocket Man” wasn’t serious about a deal.
Kim didn’t get a deal with Trump, but he already had nuclear weapons. The Iranians made the mistake of failing to keep the Americans engaged in talks without the security of actually possessing nuclear weapons.
Could it be that the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, will go the way of Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya? Both squandered their nuclear programs before reaching the absolute security of possessing the bomb. Both lost power and met ugly deaths.
My view is that Israel had no option but to mount these strikes (Editor’s note: This week, before the strikes, the IAEA Board of Governors declared Iran to be in breach of its obligations and to have enough enriched nuclear material for 9 weapons). Netanyahu was right to give the Americans the time to discover that Tehran was not a sincere negotiator, but, come what may, Israel had to destroy the weapons program.
If Israel is successful it will emerge as the unparalleled dominant military power in the Middle East. This may create a basis for returning to talks with Saudi Arabia as a potential signatory of the Abraham Accords. That outcome further marginalises the position of Hamas, and whatever is left of Hezbollah.
I’m not sure the current Iranian regime can survive though this, but a regime fighting for survival becomes even more desperate and deadly. Options might range from an IRGC coup and a brutal crackdown on the population or a popular revolution leading to a new political system.
In the face of such high-stakes strategic developments, it is noteworthy that Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s contribution to the debate on Friday was to be “alarmed by the escalation” and to “call on all parties to refrain from actions and rhetoric that would further exacerbate tensions”. The Labor government’s preference is to wish for yesterday and pretend that today isn’t happening. Calling for restraint at this point helps Iran and hinders Israel doing tough but necessary work in the interests of all peace.
This article was first published in The Australian.