ARTICLES
The enduring structural distortion from the ADF’s shipbuilding plans
The Australian government has given up on the idea of designing the Australian Defence Force to be a ‘balanced’ force. Rather, the ADF is to become a ‘focused’ force, ‘designed to address Australia’s most significant strategic risks’ through the ‘impactful projection...
The trap of silence
Some head-of-state, and head-of-government, visits are not like others. Generally, Australians are fairly relaxed when it comes to such matters. But there are occasions where such a visit will stir differing communities to active protest or generate public...
A rusted out hulk is where China’s brazen violence can fail – obviously and in plain sight.
As we watch the brazen violence of the Chinese coastguard around the Philippines' 2nd Thomas Shoal, we are witnessing a real time policy failure by countries who believe in a Free and Open Indo Pacific and a failure in collective security efforts to deter China from...
‘Girt by Sea: Re-imagining Australia’s Security Policy’ & ‘Understanding Maritime Security’
Largely because of our lack of a maritime culture, insular attitudes and failure to see Australia as a maritime power, we’ve so far failed in our defence and foreign policies to fully comprehend the security significance of the oceans. For Australia, almost everything...
Cracks in the ‘stabilised’ relationship exposed during Premier Li’s triumphal Australian visit
Premier Li’s triumphal visit to Australia was meant to mark another waypoint on the journey to a stabilised Australia-China relationship. Instead, it shows a trajectory of intimidation and silencing of our government, along with a slow motion loss of self...
Episode 20: Cringers, crawlers, walkers & runners with a dash of AI, cults, conspiracies, pyramids & portals.
Episode 20: Cringers, crawlers, walkers & runners | RSS.com The Grumpy Strategists look at the emerging cult of AUKUS & its faith-based arrangements. They also set out who is going to win the US election using very dubious 'psycho social analysis' from Michael's...
Albanese’s three fudges on China yield nothing — and weaken us
The price Australia pays for Anthony Albanese’s stabilised engagement with communist China is that all substance is drained from the relationship. That’s why the most concrete aim mentioned by the Prime Minister in his commentary piece in The Australian last Wednesday...
Australia’s defence in an age of empires – an unready nation
Is Australia ready for conflict in an age of empires? Briefly: no. Australian strategy and policy, most recently articulated in the National Defence Strategy (NDS), is solidly grounded in the post-World War II, even post-Cold War, Westphalian world view. It is...
Collins subs life extension realities & Permits for Everyone: the lazy new SAMS law
Episode 19 - Collins subs life extension realities | RSS.com In Episode 19, the Grumpy Strategists set out practical ways that $multibillion plans for keeping Australia's Collins class subs operating will need to change to enable the AUKUS Virginia class subs to be...
This trial hasn’t finished Trump — it has invigorated him
It remains to be seen if Donald Trump’s conviction on felony counts in a New York courtroom will have any material impact on the US presidential election in November. It’s clear many American voters would prefer different candidates. At least they can vote: the rest...
What role should the Collins Life of Type Extension play in Australia’s submarine transition?
Key Points The plan to put all six Collins-class submarines through an extensive and risky life of type extension (LOTE) that could keep some in service well into the 2040s is an artefact of the previous submarine transition plan that aimed to reach a fleet of 12...
The Musk Algorithm and the Sabotage Manual from WW2: which best explains your organisation?
“If you have never been punched in the nose, you have no idea how it affects the rest of your life” is how Elon Musk explains his childhood and introduces us to what drives him in Walter Isaacson’s biography of Musk’s career so far. I started reading the...
The Grumpy Strategist Makers’ Series Episode 4 – Austal
The Grumpy Strategist Makers' Series Episode - Aus | RSS.com Michael Shoebridge talks with Paddy Gregg, CEO of Austal, about the company's history as a builder of commercial and military vessels for decades now. We discuss its stocked up order book both here & in...
Defence Force recruiting crisis: It’s time to recruit applicants who aren’t citizens
An important policy change set out in the 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS) has been largely overlooked. The NDS states that Defence must fundamentally transform its recruitment practices and that this requires developing options for recruiting, where appropriate,...
Twelve questions for the Defence portfolio’s Senate estimates hearings
These questions are based on the information contained in the 2024 National Defence Statement (NDS), 2024 Integrated Investment Program (IIP) and 2024-25 Defence portfolio budget statements (PBS). Note: In this essay, ‘this year’ refers to the 2024-25 budget year....
General purpose frigates: avoiding failure by fixing a troubled start
In February, the Albanese government’s Deputy Prime Minister (and Defence Minister) Richard Marles announced that Defence would be taking delivery of the first of 11 new ‘general purpose frigates’ this decade, with three of the ships to be delivered to the Navy by...
New president gives Australia chance to step up engagement with democratic Taiwan
On Monday 20 May, Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, was inaugurated as president of Taiwan, the self-ruling island of 23 million people. For the Democratic Progressive Party this is an unprecedented third term in the presidential palace, despite losing its...
The post-Budget blues edition: Backloaded cash, unachievable plans and Collins dies young
The post Budget blues edition: Backloaded cash wit | RSS.com In Episode 18, the Grumpy Strategists look at the challenges, contradictions and half truths the numbers in the 2024 Defence Budget reveal. The headline early $5.7 billion turns out not to turn up until...
The 2024-25 Defence budget: one project to rule them
The name of the project to deliver Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) is now public: DEF 1. It’s an appropriate moniker for the one program destined to rule all of Defence. With the Defence portfolio budget statements (PBS) coming only a few weeks after the...
Truth Decay – some corrective action is necessary and possible
Australia’s Chief of Defence Force General Angus Campbell recently described the challenge of “truth decay”, where misinformation and emotions often intersect. This has played out in recent incidents in Bondi Junction and Western Sydney. An innocent person’s...
China’s aggressive military shows Australia needs a new playbook
The latest dangerous aggression by China’s military against Australia’s defence personnel – dropping flares in front of a Navy helicopter enforcing United Nations sanctions – showed us two things. Xi Jinping is happy to see his fighter pilots and ship captains acting...
Beijing’s bullying needs to be called out, loud and clear
Defence Minister Richard Marles was absolutely right to call out China publicly for the “unsafe and unprofessional interaction” in which a People’s Liberation Army jet dropped flares in the flight path of an Australian helicopter operating off the air warfare...
Rolling back dangerous Chinese military behaviour – it starts with a phone call
It shouldn’t be a surprise to hear that a Chinese jet has endangered an Australian Navy helicopter and the lives of its crew by unprofessional flying and launching flares in front of it in the Yellow Sea. This is just one of hundreds of similar aggressive and...
The numerology of Australia’s new National Defence Strategy & investment plan
The numerology of Australia's new National Defence | RSS.com In Episode 17, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge assess the foundations of defence minister Richard Marles' new National Defence Strategy, looking for clarity and focus that the welter of priorities,...
The National Defence Strategy’s 2 key shortfalls: strategic purpose & the nature of warfare
Years ago, a task often assigned graduates newly arrived in Defence was to draft responses to letters from the public. Responses would be composed by stitching together relevant ‘standard paragraphs’—pre-agreed words to common issues or concerns—then dispatched to the...
Unpacking the numbers in Defence’s new Integrated Investment Plan
On Wednesday 23 April, the Albanese Government released its National Defence Strategy (NDS) and Integrated Investment Program (IIP). The NDS was foreshadowed in the Defence Strategic Review (DSR) and is meant to appear every two years, replacing Defence White Papers....
Anthony Albanese turns a deaf ear to Australia’s rising terror threat
The appearance at the National Press Club of ASIO director-general Mike Burgess and Australian Federal Police Commissioner Reece Kershaw on Wednesday coincided with a massive counter-terror operation in NSW. On Thursday, five juveniles were charged with various...
A Pacific Ocean Expedition
Pacific leaders have long recognised the benefits to be derived from investing more in ocean science to support national and regional economic growth in ocean sectors. The islands, while small, have huge ocean areas. That makes them large ocean states. Managing the...
Why we should pay attention to China’s Antarctic moves
After Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s recent meeting with Penny Wong in land-locked Canberra it was surprising he didn’t head to Hobart for a photo op next to the Xue Long, one of China’s three icebreakers, that had travelled to Hobart from Zhongshan in China. In...
The West must act against Tehran aggression
The massive and direct aggression against Israel by Iran should wake up the democratic world to the true nature of the geopolitical and terror threat at the heart of the Israel-Hamas conflict. We’re all facing the same rectangle of rogues: Iran, Russia,...