ARTICLES
Australia and ‘stable nuclear deterrence’ – catching up with a changed world
Heralds of a new nuclear age are everywhere. Commentators point to the decline of relationships among the five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council—the exclusive great-power club which previously constituted the main ballast of the nuclear world—and the...
A Grumpy Strategist meets Taiwan’s Australian rep: world health, regional security, economics & trade – Episode 43
A Grumpy Strategist meets Taiwan's rep in Australi | RSS.com Taiwan's representative in Australia, Douglas Hsu, talks with a Grumpy Strategist about the 2025 World Health Assembly, now as a time to reinforce multilateral & international organisations, and paths to...
Albanese, Trump and defence: if self-interest isn’t enough, get ready for unthinkables
As Anthony Albanese’s election euphoria fades, the hard work of his second term has begun. And there’s probably not much that’s more difficult than navigating his meeting with US President Donald Trump at the G7 in Alberta Canada. Mr Trump demonstrated his lack...
Albanese about to get brutal lesson in great power politics
Pete Hegseth, the tough-talking US Secretary of Defence, has “conveyed” to Richard Marles “that Australia should increase its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of its GDP as soon as possible”. A “readout” of this meeting was released by the US Department of...
The two factors playing on Albanese’s mind over Trump meeting
Anthony Albanese’s first face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump will happen in Alberta, Canada, at the mid-June G7 meeting. It would be astonishing if Albanese didn’t go on to visit Trump in Washington DC. In the past, Australian prime ministers and US...
Budgeting for an Enhanced Ready Force
If the strategic environment is driving an enhanced need to bulk up the capabilities of the ready force, where will the money come from to do so? And just as significantly, would recasting and reinforcing the fight tonight force with new means such as maritime...
Episode 42 – the Meaning of Life, drones, world’s ‘biggliest’ airstrike & self destructing Democrats
Episode 42 - the Meaning of Life, with drones, the | RSS.com Marcus and Michael set out fast moving developments in military use of drones. they're happening not just in Ukraine, but in Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Singapore and the UK (just not in Australia). Then...
Rewarding Hamas will not bring a peaceful Palestine
The UN has scheduled a high-level conference on Palestine and the two-state solution in June in New York. The main aim of the conference, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, is to obtain recognition of a Palestinian state from UN members. The General...
Doing the right thing on global health, despite both Beijing and Washington
As prime minister Albanese got over the jetlag from his recent whirlwind trips to Jakarta, the Vatican and Singapore, I’d hope someone found the time in his diary to tell him about an opportunity Australia had to play a key role in reinforcing multilateral approaches...
Attention Deficit disorder debuts as global foreign policy, while muddy siloes contrast with Golden Domes.
Attention Deficit disorder debuts as global foreig | RSS.com The Grumpy Strategists road test Incat's latest product, the 130m electric ship "China Zorrilla", while assessing the whiplash shifts in American engagement with the Middle East. They contrast the ambitious...
Grumpy Strategists Popes and Prime Ministers edition – Episode 40
Grumpy Strategists Popes and Prime Ministers editi | RSS.com YouTube version available here. Marcus beams in from the Vatican after running the numbers for Pope Bob, while Michael fights his way through the clouds of smug spilling from the re-elected Labor government...
Our shrinking, self-bankrupting military – getting less for more
Australia is spending more and more taxpayers’ dollars equipping our Defence Force, but it is buying less and less. We’re in a spiralling affordability crisis leading to a shrinking Australian military and a bankrupt Defence organisation. The problem comes from the...
The Coalition’s defence funding by the numbers – breaking the permafrost
Last week the Liberal Party released its defence policy (slightly) ahead of Saturday’s federal election. The initial announcement focused on the goal of growing the defence budget to 2.5% over the next five years and to 3.0% over the decade. Since then, the...
Grumpy Strategists Episode 39: Elections, defence, cash, chainsaws and long bonnet syndrome.
Episode 39 of the Grumpies is available as a video podcast here on YouTube or here as an audio version. Marcus and Michael go through the -sparse - highlights of Australia's election campaign from a defence perspective - the Coalition's policy release has shifted the...
Peter Dutton fires a late salvo and declares war on defence drift
At last we have a measurable and important policy difference between Labor and the Coalition with Peter Dutton’s plan to lift defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP across five years and to 3 per cent by 2035. Labor’s plan is to lift defence spending slowly to 2.4...
The Coalition’s defence funding: new dollars can hedge strategic risks
The Coalition’s announcement that it will increase defence spending is a long overdue acknowledgement that business as usual in national security is not a valid option. It’s intent to hit 2.5% of GDP over the next five years and 3.0% over the next ten is a much needed...
Dutton’s defence policy must buy increased military power, fast
It’s been an extraordinary gap in the debate around our federal election that no one has got to grips with the need to make Australia more secure fast. We’ve watched Chinese warships sail around our country firing their weapons. And we’re seeing Russia building a...
Grumpy Strategists’ first video podcast: Defence Dollars & Decisions edition
Watch the video podcast here on YouTube The Grumpies Marcus and Michael are joined by SAA co-founder Peter Jennings to talk through SAA's new report: Defence 2025: Dollars and decisions available here. They cover the big changes Australia must make to deal with a US...
Defence 2025: Dollars and decisions
This report comes at an unusual moment for Australian security. We’re in the middle of a federal election campaign and it’s at a time of great global upheaval, dominated for now by big new uncertainties flowing rapidly out of the Trump administration in Washington DC....
Penny Wong can’t support Gazan protest and oppose a ceasefire with Israel at the same time
Gaza has been witnessing the largest ever protests against Hamas. Open opposition highlights how residents want the terror organisation to leave. At least some Palestinians are so fed up with Hamas that they’re brave enough to risk their lives to be heard. Palestinian...
The Grumpies’ Heard Island Edition: a risky America, determined penguins – & Australians see nothing happening.
The Grumpy Heard Island Edition: a risky America, | RSS.com The Grumpy Strategists visit Trump tariffs' Ground Zero on Heard Island. While President Trump's shifting global moves are creating uncertainty about working with America, the good news is that Australian...
In a long peace, a sleepy military is ideal. Time to wake it up.
In a long peace, the ideal military is a sleepy one. An outfit and bunch of people that resemble stewards looking after a creature put into cryogenic hibernation, with vital systems barely ticking over. The stewards in charge do routine health and system...
Navy needs to take stronger action on China ‘research ship’
In March the Chinese “research ship” Tan Suo Yi Hao worked with New Zealand scientists to send a miniature submarine 6km down to the bottom of the Pusegur Trench, collecting samples from the seabed. “I really hope they come back and look at the trenches again. There’s...
Episode 36: A Grumpy Strategist meets a Wise Owl: caught between China & the US, Australia fixates on a 2040 Fantasy Force
Episode 36: A Grumpy Strategist meets a Wise Owl: | RSS.com Grumpy Strategist Marcus Hellyer talks with co-founder Peter Jennings in SAA's secure bunker deep in the Brindabella ranges. They discuss the puzzle of the Canberra consensus that Australia is in a much more...
China’s maritime misbehaviour: common ground impossible while China remains a bad faith actor
In a recent article published by the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Edward Chan points out that Australian governments have been hesitant to engage too closely with China on maritime security issues. He argues that must change: Australia should be...
Australia’s 2025-26 Defence Budget: $59 billion, but the Government’s still missing its moment
Cometh the moment, cometh the man goes the old saying. And the moment has certainly come. We have seen an unbroken string of destabilising and threatening international events over the past decade. Their impact on Australia’s security has been consistently...
Australia’s defence needs more than hot air
We are in an age of upheaval. President Donald Trump’s actions are accelerating many of the strategic drivers that were already at work. These changes are not beneficial to Australia. While the mantra of ADF leaders has been “we’ll never fight alone”, even...
If Ukraine, Israel & Taiwan don’t matter, who’s got our back?
The seven-front war against Israel is heating up once again and the intensity of fighting in Ukraine shows we are a long way away from a sustainable peace. China meanwhile, in the words of Admiral Samuel J. Paparo, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, is not only...
Episode 35: Australian ‘wombat resistance’ to Trump begins, the masterplan for zero tariffs and debates swirl on “Plan B’ for security
Episode 35: Australian 'wombat resistance' to Trum | RSS.com Marcus and Michael explore the Government's confused position on disaster relief and the military. They assess the nuances in wombat-based pushback on US policies & set out the merits of the Government's...
The ‘5 Eyes’ & Trump: problems of trust & mistrust
The 5 Eyes intelligence partnership between Australia, the US, Canada, New Zealand and the UK is uniquely deep. It has operated for decades, including as governments of various political hues and persuasions ruled in each of the five nations. The power of the pooled...