ARTICLES
Warfare and competition from 2024 on
Warfare has changed fundamentally. Rather than seeing it as a linear progression—or adapted regression, depending on your perspective—we should understand it as increasing entanglement between the three strategic domains of conventional warfare, nuclear warfare, and...
What Arab states know – and we don’t
There’s an open secret across Middle Eastern governments that is a background driver of their approaches to the war between Israel and Iran and its terrorist proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis: they all welcome a weakened Iran and the dismantling of its...
A Defence Force that meets Australia’s strategic requirements: Paper 2 in A Blueprint for the Next Government
The Australian Defence Force (ADF) and its strategic outlook are in crisis and urgent action is needed. The key recommendation of this report is that, following the next election, the government must take urgent steps to boost Australian production of weapons,...
Israel must be supported in using force against foes
Speaking on Monday at Israel’s embassy in Canberra at the commemoration of the Hamas attack on 7 October, Senator Dave Sharma said we should “affirm the profound attachment of the people of Israel to life, to living, and to go on living, despite everything. To...
Tolerating these street protests has incubated extremism
It shouldn’t have happened this way. In 12 months of political ineptitude and strategic blindness, the Albanese government let domestic sympathy for terrorist groups grow to the point that Australia risks violence and breaking our social fabric. Such stupidity from...
Woolly-minded PM without the right words, let alone actions, on war
Anthony Albanese gave what was probably an unwitting insight into his thinking on the war in the Middle East when he said “overwhelmingly, it’s not front of mind of where Australians are at”. Judging on his statements about the war in the Middle East across...
Pagers & proportionality – what the rules say about Israeli strikes
Michael Walzer’s book, Just and Unjust Wars, is arguably the most influential modern work on the laws of war. Last week Walzer argued in the New York Times that the attacks on Hezbollah’s handheld devices were “very likely war crimes’...
Our enemies could put a digital stranglehold on us during a conflict
Defence and security agencies around the world – the smart ones – are rethinking their vulnerabilities after Israel’s pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah. Even terrorist organisations are vulnerable to global supply chain warfare. What does this mean for the...
The Hunter-class frigate program: delivering less, costing more, taking longer
The Commonwealth has entered into contract for the construction of the first three Hunter-class frigates under project SEA 5000. Defence can’t sign a contract unless the Government has approved a budget that it can actually spend. This approval is known as second...
Episode 26: Acceleration – that word doesn’t mean what you think it means
Episode 26: Acceleration - that word doesn't mean | RSS.com The Grumpy Strategists discuss what Acceleration means inside the walls of Australia's Defence organisation. Defence Science 'accelerates' - with a bold plan to deliver by 2034 what it had committed to...
Attacks on Trump must sound warning bells in Australia
The assassination attempts on former president Donald Trump point to continuity rather than a shockingly unexpected turn in American politics. The US has a long history of political violence from which repeated themes emerge. Next year, on April 14, will be the 160th...
Accidental honesty: The Quad IS all about deterring an aggressive China
It’s great that US President Biden started the Quad Leaders meetings and that there have been four since the first in March 2021. But this meeting has not produced much in substance. It looks more like a farewell meeting for Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister...
The Defence of Australia: A Blueprint for The Next Government – Paper 1: National Security and Australia’s Northern Defence
The Strategic Analysis Australia team is delighted to be working on a joint project with the Institute of Public Affairs developing a blueprint for the Australian government on defence policy. Our aim is to identify actionable policy recommendations designed to...
With exploding pagers, deterrence gets personal
3000 pagers exploded simultaneously across Lebanon, injuring hundreds of Hezbollah leaders and others carrying their pagers, and paralysing the terrorist organisation’s command system. This happened because Israel has to re-establish its power to deter its...
Afghanistan war crimes debacle exposes Defence leadership vacuum
Defence Minister Richard Marles wants you to believe two things about the government’s handling of allegations concerning Australian war crimes in Afghanistan. The first is the government has “formally closed”, “formally concluded”, “finalised” and “closed out” the...
‘JAUKUS’ by frigate: an $11 billion accelerator
Australia’s impending $11 billion general purpose frigate decision is about more than which nation’s frigate design is best. It’s also about what each nation and its defence industry can mean for Australian and regional security if a particular frigate is chosen....
Episode 25 -the Army gets wet. An empty AUKUS sub plan damages trust
Episode 25 -the Army gets wet, while an empty AUKU | RSS.com On the Grumpy Strategists' 1st birthday, Marcus and Michael assess the Army's new plan to get wet & find that the Army's focus is on its exquisite small force, with no plans for expansion during a war...
What if the Melbourne protesters got what they want?
There’s a whole set of political and ethical issues wrapped up in whether protesters like the ones gathered against Melbourne’s large Land Forces defence industry conference are right to confront police with anger, volleys of horse poo and tomatoes and even fires to...
AUKUS subs aren’t about jobs and growth
Among all the claims made about Australia’s plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) under the AUKUS partnership, one of the most misleading is the suggestion from its supporters that it will generate economic growth. This is fundamentally incorrect. Defence...
Australia’s missing nuclear debate – it’s not about subs
Recently, the nuclear debate, such as it is in Australia, has been captured by two significant developments. There are the plans for nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS arrangements. That will entail new skills, capabilities and operational practice on the part...
Makin’ missiles, a business insurgency & schedule as comedy – Episode 24
Makin' missiles, a business insurgency & schedule | RSS.com Marcus and Michael catch up on news about makin' missiles, assess whether the secret to change in Defence is a cashed up billionaire, and are bemused by the new 'Schedule is King' mantra for everyone but...
Terrorism threat system must be improved
Australia is facing a rising terror threat. This requires our terrorism alert system to be as effective as possible.This month the terrorism threat level was raised from “possible” to “probable”, in our five-level scale of not expected, possible, probable, expected,...
Australian security needs a ‘Future Made in Australia’ too
One of the spurious reasons for not using Australian industry in Australian platforms is that there are very few Australian original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of the equipment installed in ships, vehicles and aircraft. Yet Defence’s insistence on dealing...
Megaprojects & mega holes: sublime lessons for Australia’s submarine enterprise
Earlier this year I started looking at what Bent Flyvbjerg’s analysis of megaprojects can teach us about the Department of Defence’s gigaproject: its efforts to acquire a nuclear-propelled submarine capability (SSN). I’ve wanted to get back to Flyvbjerg for some time,...
Has our weak visa process already put us in danger?
On security checks of refugees from Gaza a lot of weight is being put on a handful of sentences uttered by ASIO head Mike Burgess in his recent television interview. Burgess is a smart public servant, defending his own organisation and not seeking to speak for...
In national interest, Labor must repair Israel relationship
The Australian government’s trashing of relations with Israel undermines our strategic interest in the Middle East, damages intelligence co-operation, blunts trade and investment and – uniquely, in our view – puts domestic politics ahead of diplomatic interests. This...
Disappearing tanks, $million missiles, SNAUKUS & the bear behind the US election – Episode 23
Disappearing tanks, million dollar missiles, SNAUK | RSS.com SAA's Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge cover the Australian Army's tank gap, the Navy's celebration of missile test firings, and the fact free Frankenstein imagery on AUKUS subs out of Navy officials...
A US dose of reality shows Australia must meet more of our own needs
We’ve had recent announcements from AUSMIN and AUKUS, the two acronyms describing our peak US-Australia alliance system that combine to show Australia’s defence strategy in action. Together, they demonstrate that Australia’s plan is to rely on US industrial...
Two ministers, two defence policies — same old delusions
The Albanese government has given us two defence ministers: Richard “Call me Deputy Prime Minister” Marles and his tireless workmate, Pat Conroy. No one should be surprised to learn the government also has two defence policies. First there is the policy of expanding...
An inflection point for Israel, Iran, Washington – even Australia
Israel has not acknowledged the role it played planting the bomb which killed Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ safehouse in Tehran. Take it as read: this was a Mossad operation and one that will put the fear of the Old Testament God...